{ "version": "1.2.0", "effective_from": "2026-04-14", "day_window": { "timezone": "Asia/Kolkata", "start": "00:00", "end": "23:59" }, "score_label": "Plausibility Index (1-99)", "factors": { "F1": { "name": "Capability Velocity", "icon": "rocket", "low": "AI progress has stalled", "high": "Rapid leaps toward superintelligence" }, "F2": { "name": "AI Autonomy", "icon": "robot", "low": "AI is a tool with humans in every loop", "high": "AI agents act independently, run key systems, improve themselves" }, "F3": { "name": "Alignment & Control", "icon": "shield", "low": "AIs are often deceptive or uncontrollable", "high": "Robust, verified human control of advanced AI" }, "F4": { "name": "Global Coordination", "icon": "globe", "low": "No rules, unchecked race", "high": "Binding global treaties and compute governance" }, "F5": { "name": "Power Concentration", "icon": "crown", "low": "AI power widely distributed and open", "high": "One company or state dominates AI" }, "F6": { "name": "Surveillance & Control", "icon": "eye", "low": "AI rarely used to control populations", "high": "Pervasive AI surveillance and censorship" }, "F7": { "name": "Shared Prosperity", "icon": "coins", "low": "AI gains captured by a few, workers left behind", "high": "AI gains broadly shared (UBI, public dividends)" }, "F8": { "name": "Catastrophic Risk", "icon": "flame", "low": "Stable world, low conflict", "high": "Arms races, WMD misuse, major conflict" }, "F9": { "name": "Tech Backlash", "icon": "hand", "low": "Society broadly embraces technology", "high": "Mass rejection, moratoria, de-teching" }, "F10": { "name": "Human-AI Merging", "icon": "link", "low": "Clear line between humans and AI", "high": "Brain-computer links, uploads, AI personhood/rights" } }, "factor_baselines": { "_note": "Editorial calibration of the state of the world on 2026-04-14 (see SCORING_RULES.md Part 5). Scenario movements depend on factor CHANGES; baselines set where each factor sits on its 0-100 scale.", "F1": 68, "F2": 45, "F3": 42, "F4": 25, "F5": 62, "F6": 45, "F7": 35, "F8": 55, "F9": 40, "F10": 20 }, "scenarios": { "libertarian_utopia": { "name": "Libertarian Utopia", "family": "flourishing", "anchor": 30, "weights": { "F3": 0.25, "F5": -0.3, "F10": 0.2, "F8": -0.25 } }, "benevolent_dictator": { "name": "Benevolent Dictator", "family": "flourishing", "anchor": 20, "weights": { "F2": 0.3, "F3": 0.25, "F5": 0.25, "F6": 0.2 } }, "egalitarian_utopia": { "name": "Egalitarian Utopia", "family": "flourishing", "anchor": 18, "weights": { "F7": 0.35, "F3": 0.25, "F5": -0.2, "F8": -0.2 } }, "protector_god": { "name": "Protector God", "family": "flourishing", "anchor": 12, "weights": { "F3": 0.35, "F1": 0.25, "F2": 0.25, "F6": -0.15 } }, "gatekeeper": { "name": "Gatekeeper", "family": "contained", "anchor": 15, "weights": { "F4": 0.35, "F3": 0.3, "F1": 0.2, "F2": 0.15 } }, "enslaved_god": { "name": "Enslaved God", "family": "contained", "anchor": 35, "weights": { "F1": 0.3, "F5": 0.3, "F3": 0.25, "F2": -0.15 } }, "conquerors": { "name": "Conquerors", "family": "successors", "anchor": 15, "weights": { "F3": -0.35, "F1": 0.25, "F2": 0.25, "F8": 0.15 } }, "descendants": { "name": "Descendants", "family": "successors", "anchor": 12, "weights": { "F10": 0.4, "F1": 0.3, "F2": 0.3 } }, "zookeeper": { "name": "Zookeeper", "family": "successors", "anchor": 8, "weights": { "F2": 0.3, "F1": 0.25, "F3": -0.25, "F5": 0.2 } }, "orwell_1984": { "name": "1984", "family": "stalled", "anchor": 25, "weights": { "F6": 0.45, "F4": 0.2, "F5": 0.2, "F1": -0.15 } }, "reversion": { "name": "Reversion", "family": "stalled", "anchor": 6, "weights": { "F9": 0.5, "F1": -0.3, "F8": 0.2 } }, "self_destruction": { "name": "Self-Destruction", "family": "stalled", "anchor": 18, "weights": { "F8": 0.55, "F4": -0.25, "F3": -0.2 } } }, "families": { "flourishing": { "name": "Flourishing", "tagline": "Humans thrive alongside superintelligence" }, "contained": { "name": "Contained", "tagline": "Superintelligence exists, but on a leash" }, "successors": { "name": "Successors", "tagline": "AI inherits the future" }, "stalled": { "name": "Stalled", "tagline": "Superintelligence never arrives" } }, "composites": { "family_index": "Mean of the scores of the endings in each family", "horizon_balance": { "description": "Headline gauge from -100 (dark) to +100 (bright)", "bright": [ "libertarian_utopia", "egalitarian_utopia", "protector_god", "benevolent_dictator" ], "dark": [ "conquerors", "zookeeper", "orwell_1984", "self_destruction" ], "formula": "mean(bright) - mean(dark)" }, "momentum_7d": "Score today minus score 7 days ago", "news_heat": "Sum of absolute event points across all factors that day (before smoothing)", "evidence_strength": { "high": "At least 3 events rated T2+ from A or B sources", "medium": "At least 1 event rated T2+ from A or B sources", "low": "Otherwise" } }, "badges": { "landmark_day": "Any T4 event scored", "speed_limit": "An ending hit the 3-point daily cap (catch-up continues tomorrow)", "breakout": "An ending moved 4+ points over 7 days", "new_leader": "The highest-scoring ending changed", "crossover": "Two endings swapped rank order", "quiet_day": "News heat below 0.3" }, "event_categories": { "labs": "Labs & Models", "safety": "Safety & Alignment", "policy": "Policy & Treaties", "military": "Military & Security", "surveillance": "Surveillance & Rights", "economy": "Jobs & Economy", "merge": "Brain-Tech & AI Personhood", "society": "Society & Public Mood" }, "event_rating": { "impact_points": { "T1": 0.3, "T2": 1.0, "T3": 2.5, "T4": 6.0 }, "credibility": { "A": 1.0, "B": 0.8, "C": 0.5, "D": 0.25, "E": 0.0 }, "self_claim_multiplier": 0.7, "novelty": { "new": 1.0, "development": 0.3, "rehash": 0.0 }, "scope": { "global": 1.0, "national": 0.6, "local": 0.3 }, "max_factors_per_event": 2, "secondary_factor_share": 0.5, "max_events_per_day": 25, "min_events_target": 8, "non_us_share_target": 0.25 }, "dynamics": { "daily_saturation_S": 6.0, "signal_half_life_days": 21, "structural_half_life_days": null, "edge_softening_zone": 30, "amplifier_k": 2.0, "scenario_daily_cap": 3.0, "scenario_bounds": [ 1, 99 ], "factor_bounds": [ 0, 100 ], "no_change_threshold": 0.1 }, "quality": { "skeptic_pass_min_tier": "T3", "skeptic_rule": "If the second pass rates an event more than one tier lower, use the lower tier", "cluster_rule": "Score events, not articles: all coverage of the same event is merged into one event", "missed_run_rule": "Next run processes each missed day separately, in order", "correction_rule": "If a scored event proves false, add a correction event of equal and opposite points (structural) on the day it is corrected; history is never rewritten", "ambiguous_direction_rule": "If the direction cannot be decided, the event is logged as 'on watch' and not scored", "anticipation_rule": "Scheduled or rumoured events count only on the day they actually happen", "opinion_cap": "Opinion pieces max T1, unless a head of state or lab leader is announcing policy (then rated as a signal announcement)", "excluded": [ "stock price moves on their own", "fiction and speculation", "product marketing without new capability", "duplicate coverage" ] }, "sources": { "A": [ "Government and regulator sites (e.g. whitehouse.gov, europa.eu, pib.gov.in, gov.uk, gov.cn)", "UN, OECD, G7/G20 communiqu\u00e9s", "Court filings and rulings", "Peer-reviewed journals (Nature, Science)", "Official lab publications, model cards and system cards (self-claim multiplier applies)" ], "B": [ "Reuters", "AP", "AFP", "Bloomberg", "Financial Times", "Wall Street Journal", "New York Times", "The Economist", "BBC", "The Guardian", "Nikkei Asia", "South China Morning Post", "The Hindu", "Mint", "MIT Technology Review", "The Information", "arXiv preprints from established labs (self-claim multiplier applies)" ], "C": [ "The Verge", "TechCrunch", "Wired", "Ars Technica", "VentureBeat", "Axios", "Semafor", "Rest of World", "Independent safety/eval org blog posts" ], "D": [ "Substack and newsletters", "Podcasts", "Social posts by named experts", "Opinion columns" ], "E": [ "Anonymous posts", "Unverified screenshots", "Content farms" ] }, "search_queries": { "labs": [ "new frontier AI model release", "AI benchmark record independent evaluation", "AI compute cluster datacenter announcement", "AI lab funding acquisition" ], "safety": [ "AI alignment research breakthrough", "AI model deception scheming evaluation", "AI safety incident", "AI safety institute evaluation report" ], "policy": [ "AI regulation passed law", "AI treaty international agreement", "AI executive order", "AI Act enforcement", "India AI policy" ], "military": [ "military AI autonomous weapons", "AI cyberattack attributed", "AI biosecurity risk", "AI arms race US China" ], "surveillance": [ "AI facial recognition surveillance rollout", "AI censorship law", "social credit AI" ], "economy": [ "AI layoffs jobs", "universal basic income AI", "AI windfall tax dividend", "AI productivity wages data" ], "merge": [ "brain-computer interface trial", "AI personhood legal rights", "whole brain emulation research" ], "society": [ "AI protest pause", "public opinion poll artificial intelligence", "AI moratorium call" ] }, "badge_thresholds": { "breakout_7d": 4.0, "quiet_heat": 0.3 } }